June 7, 2005 A surging Schundler closes gap at the end
By John McAlpin and Mitchel Maddux
BERGEN RECORD
Polls are open today statewide from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m.
The two front-runners for the Republican nomination for governor pushed through the final stage of a heated primary on Monday, pursuing voters at senior citizen centers, train stations and shopping centers amid signs that the race had become a tossup.
Bret Schundler, mired in second place last week, took to the campaign trail energized by a new poll showing he had pulled into a statistical tie with Doug Forrester, the West Windsor businessman who launched a television advertising blitz over the weekend.
Schundler's campaign turned into a caravan on Monday as supporters followed his RV from one rally to another.
"Today is an exciting day," the former Jersey City mayor said as he detailed the poll numbers for parents and children gathered to discuss home schooling at the Evangel Church in Bridgewater. "With those kind of numbers, we think we are going to win tomorrow."
Schundler pressed on, detailing his plan to rewrite the state constitution to cap spending and slow spiraling property taxes. The candidate tweaked his message for the preschoolers.
"Your grandmothers and grandfathers, they are getting taxed so much that many of them are forced to move," he told the children.
Forrester appeared confident and unfazed by the Quinnipiac University poll, which last week had him leading Schundler by 11 percentage points. He spent most of the day in Monmouth County, where he greeted New York commuters boarding a ferry in Belford and chatted with patrons at a diner.
At noontime, he wandered between tables at a senior citizen independent living facility in Tinton Falls.
"Doug Forrester - I'm running for governor," he said, introducing himself to a group of women dining at one table. After Forrester moved on, the women all said they were planning to vote.
Veronica Curley, 81, said she was following the campaign and was disappointed at the escalating war of words between Forrester and Schundler.
"I don't know," she said. "They've been calling each other such names. Politics, politics," she said, shaking her head.
Today's winner will face Democrat Jon S. Corzine, the freshman U.S. senator who locked up support from his party months ago. He is prepared to launch his campaign in earnest once the Republicans are through. The general election campaign could shatter spending records as Corzine is again willing to tap his vast personal fortune.
With only a nominal primary challenge, Corzine continued to act gubernatorial: On Monday, he issued a plan to form a task force to examine boards and commissions in state government, looking to cut waste.
Monday's Quinnipiac poll showed Forrester leading Schundler 35 percent to 33 percent among 329 Republicans likely to vote. The poll, which was taken between May 29 and Sunday, had a 5.4 percent margin of error.
Clay F. Richards, the poll's director, said the narrowing gap between the two front-runners appears to show that Forrester's $8.5 million spending spree on campaign ads didn't get that much bang for the candidate's buck.
A week ago, a Quinnipiac poll showed Forrester leading Schundler 40 percent to 29 percent.
The drop in Forrester's lead is not as dramatic as it seems given the latest margin of error, Richards said. That means the final election results could vary widely, giving each candidate a potential double-digit lead. Primaries that give voters a wide range of choices - there are seven Republican candidates this year - tend to be more difficult for pollsters to predict. This late survey shows about 10 percent of voters are undecided.
Throughout the campaign, neither Schundler nor Forrester was able to capture more than 40 percent, indicating voters may be bored, Richards said.
"No candidate in this race has generated great excitement among Republican voters," Richards observed. "It now comes down to which contender does the best job of getting his voters to the polls."
New Jersey's antiabortion activists have been doing just that.
Marie Tasy, executive director of New Jersey's Right to Life PAC, said her group has sent thousands of e-mails to remind them to vote for Schundler.
The organization endorsed Schundler in April based on his antiabortion stance and electability.Forrester downplayed Monday's poll results.
"He is right now where he was six months ago," Forrester said of his chief rival.
Forrester also said the perception of a tight race worked to his advantage because his supporters would be more likely to vote.
On Monday, he had more than 500 campaign workers distributing campaign literature door to door. He also set up phone banks in strategic locations throughout the state.
"I think we're going to have a larger turnout than people had predicted," Forrester said. "And the larger the turnout, the larger the margin of my victory."
Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, the most conservative among the Republican candidates and one of the least-financed, spent about $70,000 on ads targeted to conservative radio stations, said his campaign spokesman, Rick Shaftan.
Because the campaign has a restricted media budget, "we felt we could dominate there," Shaftan said.
The other candidates are Morris County Freeholder John Murphy; Assemblyman Paul DiGaetano of Nutley; Bob Schroeder, a councilman in Bergen County's Washington Township; and Todd Caliguire, a former Bergen County freeholder. Those four, as well as Lonegan, have registered single-digit support in the polls.
Turnout is key. Some analysts contend Schundler won the GOP gubernatorial primary four years ago by motivating his political base, mostly conservative groups such as abortion-rights opponents, to outnumber rank-and-file moderate Republicans. About 300,000 registered Republicans are expected to vote today.
While Forrester appeared to be the front-runner for most of the campaign, Schundler spokesman Bill Pascoe said Forrester's recent media barrage has hurt him in favor of Schundler.
"There's a backlash against Doug," Pascoe said.
Schundler's campaign had several dozen volunteers at headquarters Monday calling registered Republicans urging them to vote and up to 200 volunteers knocking on doors.
Schundler took his property tax reform message to a Hasbrouck Heights rally, one of the last of the day. Undecided voter Ralph Daniels, 73, of Hasbrouck Heights said Schundler's property tax promises are not that different from any one else's.
"The hard part is putting it into effect. Talk is cheap. Let him get elected and then see," Daniels said.
