May 31, 2005 Forrester, Schundler both claim advantage week before primary
By John Brand
PRESS OF ATLANTIC CITY
Doug Forrester has the money. Bret Schundler has the loyal following.
It remains to be seen which candidate for governor has a greater advantage with only seven days before the Republican primary.
"The key to the game is turnout," Republican strategy analyst Roger Bodman said. "Both Schundler and Forrester have run before and they know where their supporters are. The difference is Doug has more money."
Polls show the seven-candidate primary race boils down to a showdown between Forrester and Schundler. None of the other five candidates have polled at higher than 5 percent, but the votes the others attract could affect the outcome.
Forrester, the owner of a prescription-drug benefits company called BeneCard, has spent $6 million of his own money, according to the latest filings with the state's Election Law Enforcement Commission. He is the only Republican candidate funding his own campaign.
By comparison, Schundler, a former Wall Street investor and past mayor of Jersey City, has raised $1.8 million and spent $1.3 million.
Forrester has the financial resources to reach a wider audience over the final week, which means you can expect more Forrester television ads, direct mailers and radio spots.
Forrester's poll numbers increased last week, after releasing a new ad criticizing Schundler's record while Jersey City's mayor.
But strong poll numbers don't always translate into primary victories, particularly this year when analysts expect a small voter turnout.
Bodman expects between 150,000 and 250,000 of the state's 600,000 registered Republicans to vote in the primary. The key for either candidate is to win 30 percent of the votes, he said.
"It's a very small universe of people we're talking about here," Bodman said.
Schundler may have the advantage in a low-turnout election because his following is more likely to head to the polls than the moderate base backing Forrester. That strong ideological base - dubbed "Bret's Army" - led Schundler to victory over Bob Franks in 2001, despite the fact that the Republican Party supported Franks.
The pressure of getting voters to the polls will fall more heavily on Forrester, analysts said.
"We are going to get more voters to the polls than Doug will," Schundler spokesman Bill Pascoe said. "We have the ground forces and he does not."
"It's true, there is a small segment of Republican voters who have been with Bret for years," Forrester communications director Sherry Sylvester said. "But if you look at the polls you find Doug is running way ahead of Bret among women voters, every age demographic and we're really strong at both ends of the state."
Despite the disparity in funds, Pascoe said the Schundler campaign has raised more money the past few weeks than it did the entire election season. The campaign will aggressively hit radio airwaves and cable television this week, he said.
Schundler also will reach out to voters by selling a DVD on his campaign Web site that details his property-tax reform plan, the key issue of the primary, political analyst David Rebovich said.
Other candidates in the field like John Murphy, Robert Schroeder or Paul DiGaetano could take votes away from Forrester, Rebovich said. Steve Lonegan, who claims to be the most conservative candidate in the field, could pull votes from Schundler.
Polls show Lonegan gaining ground, but he is only polling at 4 percent and the margin of error is 5 percent.
"I think conservative voters realize that a vote for Lonegan is a vote for Forrester," Pascoe said. "That's not to say Lonegan doesn't have a base, but I think it's extremely small."
The stakes are high for Schundler, who lost to James E. McGreevey in the 2001 general election, and Forrester, who lost a bid for a U.S. Senate seat in 2002.
The winner will likely face Democratic candidate and U.S. Sen. Jon Corzine.
The Republican primary loser could be relegated to a lesser role in New Jersey politics.
"They become senior statesmen in the Republican Party," Rebovich said. "They certainly would not be viable candidates for statewide office in the foreseeable future."
