June 2, 2005 Poll: Forrester stretches lead over Schundler
By Michael Symons of Gannett
ASBURY PARK PRESS
TRENTON — New poll results released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University suggest businessman Doug Forrester has widened his lead over former Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler in their race for the Republican nomination for governor.
Quinnipiac's assistant polling director, Clay Richards, cautioned against reading too much into the results, which show 40 percent of likely voters back Forrester and 29 percent back Schundler in Tuesday's primary election.
"Double-digits is considered comfortable in almost any race, except maybe a Republican primary in New Jersey," Richards said. "With a low turnout, you can expect surprises, and it's really a question of who gets their vote out."
Richards said 42 percent of likely GOP voters said they still may change their mind, 12 percent were undecided and 20 percent were backing one of the other five candidates in the race — Todd Caliguire, Paul DiGaetano, Steve Lonegan, John Murphy and Robert Schroeder.
Murphy, a Morris County freeholder, had the best showing among the second-tier candidates, 9 percent. But Richards said these five candidates won't win.
Forrester's advertising blitz — which has rankled the Schundler camp because it includes negative attacks that have distorted reports by groups such as Common Cause — appears to be the engine for his growing advantage.
Forrester has dropped nearly $10 million from his own fortune into his campaign, so far. That includes $9.7 million in "loans" his campaign doesn't intend to repay and a $300,000 direct contribution made in February.
He had spent $8.5 million of that through May 24, campaign finance records show, including around $5.7 million on media — things like television and radio ads — and roughly $300,000 on print media such as direct mail.
In contrast, the Schundler campaign released its first TV ad Wednesday — and took pains to note the message is about Schundler's property tax proposal, not an attack on his rival.
Schundler is pledging a "property tax revolution" that includes amending the state constitution to limit spending growth by state and local governments. "Let's stand up and tell the greedy politicians we're not going to take it anymore," he says in the ad.
Forrester defended his ads at a Statehouse news conference. "I don't think it's possible to smear someone with the truth. I was responding to his invitation to unpack his record," he said.
"The advertising campaign must have had a major effect. It's the one factor in the campaign that has been a big difference between the two candidates. The debates brought out nothing dramatic," Richards said. "It's been a gradual move toward Forrester. The only thing that's happened is more and more Forrester ads on television."
The poll, done by telephone from May 22 through 29, surveyed 302 likely Republican primary voters. Such a sample is smaller than typical polls, reflecting the difficulty of polling for a primary; the error margin is 5.6 percentage points.
