Mercer County businessman Doug Forrester's campaign for governor has claimed its first substantial lead over former Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler in the race for the Republican nomination, according to a new poll.
Forrester leads Schundler 40 percent to 29 percent among Republicans likely to vote in Tuesday's primary election, according to the Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday. The pair had been statistically tied until two weeks ago, when Forrester registered a slight lead in a Quinnipiac poll.
Forrester, the GOP candidate for U.S. Senate in 2002, and Schundler, the GOP candidate for governor in 2001, lead a field of seven Republicans vying to oppose U.S. Sen. Jon S. Corzine, the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor.
On Wednesday, Corzine interrupted the Republicans' unfolding drama by unveiling his own plan to address New Jersey's mounting property taxes, weighing in on an issue that has dominated the Republican race.
Schundler, meanwhile, tried to stoke his own "property tax revolution" with his first cable television advertisement - a late effort to answer a series of Forrester ads on cable, broadcast television and radio. Forrester, owner of a prescription benefits firm, had spent $8.5 million of his own money on the campaign as of last week, more than the other six Republicans combined.
The Quinnipiac poll seems to show that Forrester's expensive advertising spree is working, said Clay F. Richards, the poll director. At the same time, primary results are hard to predict. The poll, conducted last week, has a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points.
"Bret Schundler seems to be fading in the stretch as Doug Forrester stays on pace in the Republican race for governor," Richards said. "But this is the type of primary where surprises happen, and an expected small turnout can produce unexpected results."
The poll found that 63 percent of likely Republican voters recalled seeing a campaign commercial, and most of those recalled that it was for Forrester. His support was slightly stronger than average among those who recalled seeing an ad.
Forrester also did particularly well when voters were asked which Republican was most likely to defeat Corzine. Fifty-six percent said they would bet on Forrester, who has been careful to stake out moderate positions on social issues, while 27 percent chose Schundler.
"With so much at stake in this election, Republican voters ... see Doug is the candidate to defeat Jon Corzine and the Democrats in November," said Forrester's communications director, Sherry Sylvester.
Commitment not solid
The poll found relatively low commitment among Republican voters, with 42 percent saying their minds could change before Tuesday. But Schundler's support was more solid on that score, with 65 percent of his backers describing themselves as firmly behind him and 35 percent saying they could waver. Among Forrester's supporters, 59 percent said they were steadfast and 40 percent could be persuaded otherwise.
"According to the survey, Bret Schundler's loyal base of supporters is more committed to voting for him than are Doug Forrester's," said Schundler communications director Bill Pascoe. "As we showed in 2001, handicappers would do well not to underestimate the resolve and determination of the Schundler army. We'll put them up against Mr. Forrester's Hessians any day of the week."
More troubling for the Schundler campaign, only 29 percent of those polled believe his property-tax plan is the best in the field, compared with the 40 percent who preferred Forrester's. Schundler has based his campaign almost entirely on his plan to constitutionally limit government spending and then gradually replace local governments' property-tax revenue with state funds generated by other taxes.
Much later in the campaign, Forrester introduced his "30 in three" plan, which promises to offset property taxes 30 percent over three years by making unspecified cuts in state spending. More voters appear to have responded to his simpler guarantee.
Schundler's cable ad attempts to cast his plan in newly plain, populist terms. It shows the candidate speaking to a crowd that becomes more galvanized with his every sentence, finally erupting in cheers when Schundler exhorts: "Let's stand up and tell the greedy politicians we're not going to take it anymore!"
Corzine rebate plan
Corzine said Wednesday that he would increase existing property-tax rebates 10 percent annually for four years - a sort of "40 in four" to top Forrester's "30 in three."
The Democrat, who faces only nominal opposition in the primary, said he could not yet release all the details of his plan. But he said the most generous rebates would likely go to elderly homeowners on fixed incomes, and the size of checks would shrink as incomes rise. The state's wealthiest residents, perhaps the top 10 percent, would not get rebates, he said during a news conference on the front lawn of a suburban home in Mercer County.
Corzine campaign officials expect the higher rebate checks to drain the state's treasury by $7.5 billion over four years. Corzine and his aides said that would be accounted for by a combination of economic growth and broadly characterized spending cuts. Like most of the Republicans, Corzine vowed to cut excess state government jobs "in a serious way."
"I've never seen a budget that can't stand cutting," Corzine said. "I think there's a lot of savings if we manage the state properly."
Corzine said he would raise state taxes only as a last resort.
"I don't think we need to raise taxes," he said. But, he added, "I'm not going to take a no-new-tax pledge."
Forrester fires back
Forrester quickly responded by calling Corzine's property tax plan "half-baked."
"It is best characterized by ambiguity," Forrester said at a State House news conference about an hour after Corzine's event.
Forrester touted his own plan to offset property taxes by 30 percent through a constitutionally mandated rebate plan. He maintains that his plan would provide $1 billion in rebates to property owners the first year, gradually increasing to $2.7 billion by the third year.
Forrester added that Corzine's plan for an elected state comptroller to oversee local spending echoes his own proposed state auditor.
"I wonder if perhaps he's been following our campaign," Forrester said.
In the Quinnipiac poll, Forrester and Schundler still hold a wide lead over the five other Republicans. Morris County Freeholder John Murphy, however, seems to have opened a slight lead for third place, with 9 percent. Murphy's campaign released one of the most enthusiastic responses ever prompted by a single-digit showing.
"While the news media, opinion moguls and assorted State House wags want to call it a race between Forrester and Schundler, GOP voters are restive and seek someone new who will lead the party to victory in November," said his campaign manager, Richard DeAngelis.
Murphy was in a statistical tie with Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, at 4 percent. Bringing up the rear were Bergen County defense contractor Robert Schroeder, at 3 percent, and Assemblyman Paul DiGaetano of Nutley and former Bergen County Freeholder Todd Caliguire, at 2 percent each.
