June 2, 2005 Forrester widens the gap on Schundler in GOP poll
By Robert Schwaneberg and Jeff Whelan
STAR LEDGER
A new poll showed Doug Forrester increasing his lead over Bret Schundler for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, but more than half the likely voters surveyed have not firmly made up their minds with the primary less than a week away.
The Quinnipiac University poll of likely Republican voters, released yesterday, found Forrester leading Schundler 40 percent to 29 percent. A May 19 poll had found 39 percent favored Forrester compared with 33 percent for Schundler.
None of the five other candidates got double-digit support in the new poll, which has a margin of error of 5.6 percent. Morris County Freeholder John Murphy placed third with 9 percent.
"Bret Schundler seems to be fading in the stretch," Clay Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said, "but this is the type of primary where surprises happen."
Twelve percent of those polled were still undecided and another 42 percent said they might change their minds by next Tuesday's election.
"There is a big if in this. Anything can happen," Richards said. "It doesn't look good for Schundler at this point, but in a Republican primary there are three things that determine who wins: turn out, turn out and turn out. And you can't poll on who is going to win that race."
Schundler's spokesman, Bill Pascoe, said the poll "shows once again what we've been saying all along -- this race is going to come down to the ground war, to the question of which campaign has the more loyal and motivated supporters and which campaign can turn them out on Election Day." He predicted Schundler, a former mayor of Jersey City, would win that contest.
The poll found Schundler's supporters are somewhat more committed than Forrester's. Forty percent of Forrester's backers said they might change their minds compared with 35 percent of Schundler's supporters.
Forrester's spokeswoman, Sherry Sylvester, attributed his polling lead in large part to a growing belief that he can beat U.S. Sen. Jon Corzine, who faces only token opposition for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.
Fifty-six percent of those polled said Forrester has the best chance of defeating Corzine, up from 45 percent in the last poll. Twenty-seven percent put more faith in Schundler, down from 31 percent.
Sylvester added that the more voters hear about Forrester's plan to have the state pick up 30 percent of local property tax bills within three years, "'the better they like it."
Asked which of the two leading Republicans has the better property tax relief plan, 40 percent said Forrester and 29 percent picked Schundler. Those percentages mirrored the support for each candidate.
