June 4, 2005 In Second Bid for Governor, Longer Odds to Overcome
by David Kocieniewski
NEW YORK TIMES
MOUNTAINSIDE, N.J., June 2 - With dozens of volunteers stuffing envelopes, phoning potential voters and assembling lawn signs, the atmosphere at Bret D. Schundler's campaign headquarters Wednesday evening had the type of hum one might expect less than a week before an election.
Then, at 8:30, the room abruptly emptied. Most of the volunteers announced that they were leaving earlier than scheduled to watch TV.
"I made the mistake of telling them that Bret's first campaign commercial was debuting this evening," said Bill Pascoe, Mr. Schundler's spokesman. "People are so excited to see us fight back that they couldn't wait to see it."
Mr. Schundler's combativeness, along with his ability to fire up his followers, is the major reason he defied the state's Republican establishment in 2001 to seize the party's nomination for governor. With his outspoken support for school vouchers and his opposition to abortion rights and gun control, Mr. Schundler electrified conservatives who had long felt neglected in New Jersey's moderate Republican Party.
But in this year's primary, Mr. Schundler's followers face even longer odds.
Douglas R. Forrester, a pharmacy insurance executive, has outspent Mr. Schundler by more than five to one and built a double-digit lead in the polls. For weeks, Mr. Forrester has been the only candidate running television advertisements. Recent surveys show that he is seen as a stronger candidate on the issue at the heart of Mr. Schundler's campaign: reducing property taxes.
The question to be answered on Tuesday, when Republican voters head to the polls (Senator Jon S. Corzine, a Democrat, faces a primary, too, but has only token opposition), is whether Mr. Schundler's grass-roots network can manage to overcome an even bigger disadvantage than it faced last time.
"Schundler clearly has had one of the most dedicated bases of anyone in New Jersey in recent years," said Roger Bodman, a Republican strategist who is not working with any candidate in this race. "But Forrester's financial advantage is bigger than we've seen in a primary before, so it is a lot to ask."
In 2001, Mr. Schundler's role as Jersey City mayor helped him raise a substantial amount of money, which he invested in identifying, maintaining and mobilizing an enthusiastic core of conservative supporters. But many political analysts say that core group of motivated supporters, known as "Schundler's Army," appears to be somewhat smaller and less passionate than it was four years ago.
As a Republican who had triumphed over the notorious Democratic political machine in Hudson County, Mr. Schundler's reputation as a reformer came in handy when Acting Gov. Donald T. DiFrancesco was forced to withdraw from the Republican primary because of questions about business deals.
Then, when party leaders selected United States Representative Bob Franks to replace Mr. DiFrancesco - and Republicans in the State Legislature voted to help Mr. Franks by pushing back the primary date and changing the spending limits - many voters were outraged and cast protest ballots for Mr. Schundler.
But in the general election, James E. McGreevey, a Democrat, branded Mr. Schundler a right-wing ideologue, and won by 15 percentage points.
"That hurt Bret in a unique way," said Alan Marcus, a Republican lobbyist. "He tried to shake the extremist label by moving to the center and, as a result, some of his conservative base thinks he abandoned them. But the moderates still remember that he's a conservative."
Mr. Schundler's advisers reject that notion. They insist that his core following has adapted to the more complex dynamic of this year's race and is stronger than it was four years ago. In November, a party to kick off Mr. Schundler's campaign was planned for 575 people, and 1,300 showed up.
But Rabbi Israel Teitelbaum, an advocate for school vouchers, who is campaigning for Mr. Schundler again this year, said he has found people less receptive this time to Mr. Schundler's promise to overhaul the schools. "People are burnt out by all the corruption," he said. "Even though Bret is different, they don't want to hear about it, because they think all politicians are the same."
Mr. Schundler has also faced competition from the right. One of the contenders in this year's primary, Steve Lonegan, is a fiery conservative who has attracted some support from groups most ardently opposed to gun control and abortion rights.
But Mr. Schundler is still receiving organizational support from several of the state's anti-abortion groups, including the most prominent, New Jersey Right to Life. He has also sought to build on his base by emulating a strategy that worked well for President Bush's campaign last year: "microtargeting" groups of potential voters and tailoring a pitch to them.
Sal Risalvato, an adviser to Mr. Schundler this year and in 2001, said the campaign has reached out to hundreds of receptive groups, from Catholic parishes and evangelical churches to sportsmen's clubs and homeowners groups. These voters, Mr. Schundler's strategists say, are so motivated that the polls suggest that their supporters are far more likely than Mr. Forrester's to vote.
Michael Martello, 17, said he was too young to be involved in politics during Mr. Schundler's last race, but has spent dozens of hours this year canvassing door to door and telephoning voters.
"You hear Bret speak, and you're hooked," said Mr. Martello, a member of the East Brunswick Teenage Republicans. "He seems to understand what matters to people, and has sensible solutions and the energy to get things done."
Mr. Schundler's spokesman, Mr. Pascoe, said the campaign was on the way to meeting its goal of telephoning 100,000 potential voters between Memorial Day and the primary and distributing 100,000 voter guides at 800 churches across the state.
But in recent days there have also been signs that the campaign might be overstating the extent of its support. The political Web site Politicsnj.com this week reported that a photo being displayed by the Schundler campaign, which showed the candidate amid a cheering crowd of students, had been digitally altered.
The crowd was actually photographed last summer at a rally for Howard Dean, then a presidential candidate. A marketing company hired by the Schundler campaign replaced the Dean signs in the picture with Mr. Schundler's placards as well as replacing Mr. Dean with Mr. Schundler. Mr. Pascoe said that the campaign was unaware that the photograph had been altered. Once that fact came out, it removed the image from the campaign Web site, he said.
In another misstep, Mr. Schundler's schedule for the final campaign weekend listed an appearance at a property tax rally in Middletown on Sunday afternoon with a popular local assemblyman, Sam Thompson. But Mr. Thompson said in an interview Friday that he had told Mr. Schundler's schedulers that he had no plans to attend and did not endorse him or his property tax plan.
"I told them when they called this week that I'm not going to a rally, and I'm not supporting anyone in this race," he said. "I've got my own primary to worry about."
Despite these problems, Mr. Schundler's advisers say they are confident that his base is large and motivated enough to deliver the nomination. After the volunteers left campaign headquarters on Wednesday night, Mr. Risalvato seemed buoyed that the weather forecast for primary day called for heavy rain across the state, a factor likely to diminish voter turnout.
"That's good news for us," he said. "Bret's people would come out if hell froze over."
