June 5, 2005 GOP front-runners seek Shore votes in Primary battle
By Kathy Matheson
ASBURY PARK PRESS
Despite being jilted earlier this year, Republican gubernatorial hopefuls Doug Forrester and Bret Schundler were all smiles and handshakes when they returned to Ocean County last week to woo potential voters.
Neither candidate received the backing of the influential county GOP organization after its convention in March. But that didn't keep them from courting a group of senior citizens Friday at Veterans Park in Berkeley, where they pitched their property tax plans and answered questions from the interested group.
With polling places opening in less than 48 hours, voters in heavily Republican Monmouth and Ocean counties could play a key role in determining the GOP nominee for governor.
Joseph Marbach, chairman of the political science department at Seton Hall University, predicted the key to winning Tuesday's primary will be turnout.
"I expect about 300,000 voters," Marbach said. "If you can turn out 120,000 voters, you're likely to win. Both Schundler and Forrester are kind of right on that threshold."
Yet the Shore's party faithful find themselves in an interesting position.
Forrester — who leads the seven Republican hopefuls by a wide margin, according to recent surveys — did not receive an endorsement from either county GOP committee.
And Schundler, the former Jersey City mayor, is sharing the Monmouth GOP's support with Morris County Freeholder John Murphy, who polls show is running a distant third.
"I like John Murphy," said Berkeley resident Tony Pappagallo, 71. "(But) I don't think he has a chance."
Campaign watchers acknowledge that party backing is important — in part because of the prominent ballot placement accorded to those candidates.
But, as Schundler proved in 2001 by overwhelmingly winning the nomination with virtually no support from the Republican establishment, endorsements are no guarantee of victory, Marbach said.
"Schundler, we know, is strong without the (ballot) lines," Marbach said. "I think he has an underlying strength that isn't reported in the polls."
Schundler won 52 of 53 Monmouth County municipalities in 2001, despite the county GOP having endorsed former U.S. Rep. Robert Franks.
Carl Sicignano, 76, of Berkeley, isn't sure who he is going to vote for. He came to Veterans Park on Friday to hear Forrester, Schundler and Robert Schroeder — the councilman from Washington Township, Bergen County, who did get the Ocean County GOP endorsement — address the Holiday City/Silver Ridge Republican Club. Murphy's wife, Jennifer, attended on behalf of her husband.
Sicignano is most concerned about property taxes, abuse of the state's pension system and unnecessary school bureaucracies.
He said smaller municipalities should regionalize education services to save money.
"It seems to be wrong having that many school districts," Sicignano said.
Property taxes, though, have been the thrust of the Forrester and Schundler campaigns. Each has his own plan for reducing the skyrocketing levies — and each can find countless flaws with the other's proposal.
Money spent publicizing these plans, and attacking each other through TV ads, will also be a huge factor over the next two days, said Pete McDonough, a political consultant who previously served as communications director for former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman.
Forrester, a multimillionaire businessman from Mercer County, has spent about $9 million on his candidacy so far, nearly five times what Schundler has.
Forrester said Friday that he has essentially been running "parallel" campaigns — one to win the primary and one to win the general election against the presumptive Democratic nominee, U.S. Sen. Jon S. Corzine.
He plans to continue the TV ads, handouts and mailings over the next two days.
"Just stay the course," Forrester said.
Schundler, meanwhile, said his campaign is much different from the one he ran in 2001.
Instead of running on his record as Jersey City mayor, he is running on a platform to reduce property taxes — a pledge he said can strengthen the party if it's adopted by GOP candidates at all levels across the state.
"I'm focusing on a message not about me," Schundler said.
A poll released last Wednesday by Quinnipiac University put Forrester 11 points ahead of Schundler and more than 30 points ahead of the other five candidates: Murphy, Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, Schroeder, former Bergen County Freeholder Todd Caliguire and Essex County Assemblyman Paul DiGaetano.
But Monmouth County GOP Chairman Fredrick Niemann — whose organization is backing Schundler and Murphy — said turnout is more important than poll numbers.
"The polls are interesting, but they're not conclusive," Niemann said. "Whoever is the best-organized to get out their core support will be the nominee."
Barnegat resident John Genz, 69, said he does his best to encourage voter turnout in his neighborhood.
"I'm a big believer in (the motto) "Don't complain if you don't go out and vote,' " he said Friday while attending a community meeting with Forrester.
McDonough agreed that polling "in a crowded primary is notoriously flawed."
"The polls could be terribly wrong," McDonough said. "It's very hard to get a representative sample of the people who are actually going to vote."
A Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers poll conducted in mid-May found 42 percent of Republicans surveyed could not name any of the seven GOP hopefuls.
The poll even inserted a fictitious name — Pete Vincelli — who ended up receiving more support than Caliguire, a legitimate candidate.
