June 5, 2005 Republican front-runners go to the mat
By Deborah Howlett and Jeff Whelan
STAR LEDGER
Forrester, Schundler top field of 7
It was a battle New Jersey Republicans desperately hoped to avoid.
It began in November when U.S. Attorney Chris Christie said he would not seek the Republican nomination for governor. That decision crushed the party's dream of uniting behind acorruption-busting prosecutor to take back the Statehouse following the resignation of Democratic Gov. James E. McGreevey over a gay sex scandal earlier last year.
Instead, the GOP has spent 6 1/2 months watching seven contenders wrangle for the chance to run against a popular and wealthy Democrat, U.S. Sen. Jon Corzine.
And what started out as a gentlemanly -- and tepid -- contest of town meetings and debates has turned into a nasty clash between front-runners Doug Forrester and Bret Schundler, each accusing the other of lies, distortion and deceit.
Little wonder Republican State Committee Chairman Tom Wilson is "eager" to get past Tuesday's primary and on to "the main event" against Corzine, who is coasting to the Democratic nomination against token opposition.
"Primaries tend to be a little uncomfortable," Wilson said. "It's never enjoyable to watch your friends run against each other."
Through most of the campaign, Forrester, a Mercer County businessman, and Schundler, former Jersey City mayor, ran neck- and-neck well ahead of the rest of the pack. Forrester has appeared to pull ahead in recent polls after spending more than $5 million on TV advertising.
The stakes are enormous for both. Schundler lost the governor's race in 2001, and Forrester lost a 2002 race for the U.S. Senate. Another statewide loss for either would likely consign him to political obscurity.
"In New Jersey politics, one strike qualifies you to stay up at bat, but two strikes put you out of the game," said Ross Baker, a Rutgers University political science professor. "The belief is, you are damaged goods. You pick up the reputation as a loser and that is a tough reputation to shake."
For the other five candidates, the race has been more important than the outcome, bringing them visibility that could position them well for future campaigns.
Morris County Freeholder John Murphy is now widely viewed as an up-and-comer. Three of the candidates from Bergen County -- former freeholder Todd Caliguire, businessman Bob Schroeder and Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan -- may have offered a preview of the 2006 race for county executive; Lonegan has run once before.
And Paul DiGaetano, who gave up the Assembly seat he has held for 16 years to run, may yet find a way back into the Statehouse, perhaps in the Senate.
A victory by any of the five, however, would be a major shock.
Yesterday, amid a backdrop of psychics and games of chance along the boardwalk at Point Pleasant Beach, Forrester, Schundler and Murphy stumped for votes.
The common theme was New Jersey's high property taxes, with Forrester's people wearing buttons that read, "Cut your property taxes 30%."
At several points along the boardwalk, Murphy crossed paths separately with Schundler and Forrester. But Forrester left for a Red Bank jazz festival before Schundler arrived, preventing a chance for a confrontation between the two front-runners.
As if on cue, the Beatles' "(Money) Can't Buy Me Love" blared from a games-of-chance booth when Forrester, the biggest spender in the Republican primary, passed by.
Murphy was greeted by Joe Walsh of Point Pleasant Beach, who identified himself as a cousin of acting Gov. Richard Codey. "What are the chances of that happening?" asked Murphy, who stayed the longest of the three candidates -- for more than two hours.
Schundler, the only candidate to wear a tie on the boardwalk, chatted up beachgoers, downed a frozen yogurt cone, played catch with his son, and sprung for members of his staff to try their luck at a wheel of chance. They lost.
GOP Chairman Wilson is surprised that the field of seven remained intact. "I thought at least a couple of them would have decided not to continue their campaign," he said.
The campaign began in earnest last fall, in the weeks after McGreevey cleared out his desk and Christie opted out. Schundler and several others already had committed to the race. Forrester, sidelined for a time when his daughter was ill, was the last to throw his hat into the ring.
While Republicans were sorting themselves out through the winter, Corzine was consolidating support among Democratic county chairmen. Those endorsements, and Corzine's willingness to bankroll his campaign from his personal fortune, prompted Codey in late January to announce he would not seek election.
The Republicans turned to a process in which the candidates vied for endorsements at county conventions. It was more open and democratic, they crowed, than the backroom dealings of Democrats. But the jockeying for endorsements also caused sharp rifts between the campaigns.
Then came a series of a dozen debates that put all seven candidates on stage together and gave each about 60 seconds to make their case on a litany of issues.
Even with the televised debates, the campaign didn't inspire much enthusiasm. A Star- Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers Poll two weeks ago showed just 17 percent of registered Republicans were paying "a lot" of attention. What's more, 42 percent who identified themselves as Republicans could not name one of the seven candidates.
Somerset County Republican Chairman Dale Florio worries the low interest doesn't augur well for the party in the general election.
"I'm not sure that the enthusiasm is there. My fear is that turnout will be low. And if the Republicans want to send a message statewide to Trenton, you'd hope people will show up to vote," Florio said.
Brigid Harrison, a Montclair State University associate professor of political science, said the early tone of the campaign might have been too tame.
"It really started out rather agreeable, much more gentlemanly than other primary battles," Harrison said. "Three weeks ago, it went downhill. That was a product of how close the polls are, I think."
The animosity between the two front-runners is clear.
Between bites of pizza at a campaign event last week with Somerset County Young Republicans at Chimney Rock Inn, Schundler complained about what he called the "gutter politics" of Forrester and predicted it would result in a low turnout overall, even as it motivated his core supporters.
"I think our people -- because of Doug Forrester's basically libelous attacks -- are really angry and energized," he said.
Chugging coffee during an appearance at the Village Grande adult community in West Windsor, where he served four years on the town council, Forrester vented his frustration at some of the criticism Schundler has leveled.
"Yes, I'm angry," Forrester said. "You can call me mistaken. You can call me misinformed. You can even say I'm foolish. ... Don't call me a liar. Don't do that."
Wilson took precautions against any lasting damage a month ago, calling a "unity meeting" of all seven campaigns to extract a pledge from each one to support the eventual nominee, no matter who it was or what happened in the campaign.
"The goal is November," Wilson said. "We all understand that."
But the attacks on each other's records and plans for property tax relief may provide a cache of ammunition for Corzine in the fall campaign.
Behind the public events and the TV ads, the race has been a lopsided duel of dollars. While six of the candidates opted for public financing, Forrester, whose personal worth exceeds $50 million, chose to self-finance. And he has spent more than $10 million, about the same as the other six combined.
"This primary has been about the power of money," said Harrison, the Montclair State political scientist.
The "turning point," she said, was a $1 million ad buy in late April by Forrester, when none of the other campaigns was on the air because they were saving for a final-week ad blitz. That gave Forrester the edge in name recognition and put his plan for cutting property taxes ahead of the others.
"That turned the tenor of the campaign," Harrison said.
If Forrester wins in the primary, Harrison said, money becomes much less of a factor in the general election because Forrester will be able to match Corzine's spending.
Then, she said, "It really becomes the clash of the titans."
