June 1, 2005 Quinnipiac: It's Air War v. Ground War
(MOUNTAINSIDE, NJ) -- Schundler for Governor communications director Bill Pascoe -- responding to the release of a new poll by Quinnipiac University showing the campaign for Governor will go down to the wire this final weekend, and will be determined by the campaigns" turnout operations -- this morning issued the following statement:
"Today's Quinnipiac University poll shows once again what we"ve been saying all along -- this race is going to come down to the ground war, to the question of which candidate has the more loyal and motivated supporters, and which campaign can turn them out on Election Day. According to the survey, Bret Schundler's loyal base of supporters is more committed to voting for him than are Doug Forrester's. Fully 65 percent of Bret's supporters are committed to voting for him, while just 59 percent of Forrester's are. So as the campaign comes down to its final six days, we are where we always knew we would be -- in a neck and neck race to turn out our voters. As we showed in 2001, handicappers would do well not to underestimate the resolve and determination of the Schundler Army -- we"ll put them up against Mr. Forrester's Hessians any day of the week.
"Just as importantly, Doug Forrester's lead in this new poll is entirely a function of the ugly smear campaign he's been running against Bret -- a multimillion-dollar smear campaign that led one Paul DiGaetano ally to say Forrester has been running a "less than honorable" campaign, and which led the Philadelphia Inquirer to opine that "Forrester's claims do not stand up to scrutiny." That is, the margin between Bret and Mr. Forrester has widened since the last Quinnipiac survey not because Mr. Forrester's own support has increased, but because Bret's polled support has dropped a few points -- clearly, a result of the ugly smear Mr. Forrester has been putting millions of dollars behind.
"Moreover, note should be taken of the fact that this poll was in the field from May 22 to May 29, before our electronic advertising began. We have been up for several days with a large buy on statewide radio outlets, and our television campaign begins today. Contrary to the expectations of some observers, we will be on broadcast television as well through the closing days of the primary campaign. We are confident that as we widen the reach of our message via electronic media, and as the Schundler Army moves into turnout mode this final weekend, that we will make an honest man out of Clay Richards, who this morning says, "this is the type of primary where surprises happen and an unexpected small turnout can produce unexpected results."
"A final note for the armchair quarterbacks: In the 2001 gubernatorial primary, Bret Schundler won the votes of 193,000 Republican primary voters. In the 2002 U.S. Senate primary, Doug Forrester won the votes of just 98,000 Republican primary voters. That is, TWICE as many Republican primary voters have cast a ballot for Bret as have cast a ballot for Mr. Forrester. Turnout next Tuesday is expected to be low -- but let's say, just to be safe, that 300,000 voters go to the polls on Election Day. Let's also say, to be safe, that we need 45 percent to win. 45 percent of 300,000 is 135,000. Which is another way of saying that Doug Forrester has to INCREASE his vote total from the 2002 primary by almost half again to win -- while Bret Schundler can afford to GIVE AWAY a third of HIS vote total from the 2001 primary, AND STILL WIN.
"A final, final note: click on http://www.doug.com/html/press/may/05-25-05b.html to see the Forrester campaign's last press release about a new "poll." THAT "poll," released last week by SurveyUSA, showed Mr. Forrester with a 16-point lead -- and, consequently, the Forrester campaign LOUDLY trumpeted it from the tops of the highest hillsides. In order for the Forrester campaign to remain intellectually honest, they"re going to have come up with an explanation today of why Mr. Forrester's lead has SHRUNK by 5 points in the last week. Could it be voter revulsion against his ugly smear campaign? Could it be voter rejection of the sheer number of Forrester ads they"ve seen? Could it be that the more they see of him, the less they like of him? Could it be a combination of all three? Could it be that voters have come to the conclusion that Doug Forrester is mistaken, misinformed, and foolish?"
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Paid for by Schundler for Governor
www.bret2005.com
