He hasn't won a single county endorsement so far. And he faces a spirited challenge for control of his conservative base.
So why is Schundler so serene? And why are a growing number of Republicans privately picking him to win the nomination?
"He's got a loyal base of supporters, and that support is growing," said one deflated party official. "Even people working for other campaigns, like me, are becoming convinced of it."
When moderate Republicans talk like this, they sound like condemned men marching to the gallows. They are convinced Schundler is too conservative to win in November. But since Christie Whitman left, the party has no leader who can steer it toward more moderate ground.
Schunder's views on guns and abortion are a better fit in Texas than in New Jersey, and his tendency to drone on about policy minutia is legendary.
But he has sharpened his game since his loss in 2001. He stays on message now, like a robot, talking about property taxes whenever a microphone is within reach.
"I've learned that the message has to be simple, and you have to be brief," he says.
He's also blessed with good luck this year.
The field of Republican candidates is undeniably weak. Five of Schundler's rivals are getting support only from immediate family members, if the polls are to be believed.
The only real competition is businessman Doug Forrester, who is tied with Schundler in most polls and says he's willing to spend $8 million of his own fortune to get the nomination.
But Forrester has stumbled badly. He has replaced most of his top staffers at least once. And despite lavish spending, he managed to lose critical county endorsements in Bergen and Ocean counties to lesser candidates. Among the party's conservative base, he has only lukewarm support.
"Doug is not a rock star, he's like a chess champion," says one of his supporters. "People like Gary Kasparov, but they don't take their underwear off and ask him to sign it. That's the difference. Schundler is a rock star to them."
Republican leaders had hoped that the field of candidates would have narrowed by now, so that Forrester would have a chance to face Schundler one-on-one.
But no one has been able to convince the lesser candidates to drop out. Assemblyman Paul DiGaetano, a blip in the polls, was encouraged when he won the endorsement in Bergen.
Businessman Bob Schroeder, a blip without DiGaetano's knowledge of public policy, seems to think his endorsement in Ocean County gives him some hope.
This crowded field works to Schundler's advantage because he has the loyal support of 35 to 40 percent of Republican voters. If the rest is split among his competitors, he stands a good chance of winning.
Which brings us to Steve Lonegan, the arch conservative who is challenging Schundler for that conservative base. The mayor of Bogota, Lonegan has kept town spending flat for 10 years, and filed suit to force the state government to stop borrowing money without voter approval. To conservatives, that's music.
But Lonegan can sound like a crackpot, too.
At a debate in Middlesex County Wednesday night, he called Schundler a "Cuban-style socialist" and said that if Terry Schiavo were on a feeding tube in New Jersey, he would send in the State Police to save her, no matter what the courts said. He later added that he'd do so even if Schiavo had signed a living will with instructions to pull the tube.
Is New Jersey ready for that? Is even Mississippi ready for that?
Schundler could make his mark tomorrow when Middlesex County holds its convention. It is the only convention so far that is open, where any registered Republican can vote, and party officials say Schundler has signed up more new voters than anyone.
If he wins that primary, Forrester's troubles will only grow.
